Question

When traveling the probability of missing two flights in a row is .06. The probability of missing a single flight is .19. Are the two flights independent? ?

Answer 1

Suppose that we have two events, event A and event B.

Where the probability of event A is Pa, and the probability of event B is Pb.

We say that events A and B are independent if the probability of both events happening is equal to the product of the individual probabilities.

Probability of event A and B = Pa*Pb.

In this case we have:

A = missing a single flight

B = missing a single flight.

Pa = 0.19 = Pb.

And we know that the probability of missing two flights is 0.06

Let's see if this is equal to the product of the individual probabilities:

Pa*Pb = 0.19*0.19 = 0.036

So the joint probability is smaller than the one given, this means that the events are not independent and that if you miss one plane, the probability of missing the next one has a small increase.