Final answer:
The scientists can assess evolutionary fitness by tracking the reproductive success of mice, with the color of the sand as the independent variable and the null hypothesis being that sand color has no effect on fur color distribution. Changes in fur color frequencies are justified as a result of natural selection due to selective predation pressures, leading to an increase in the frequency of fur color that offers better camouflage in the given environment.
Step-by-step explanation:
In an experiment to observe evolutionary fitness and natural selection on fur color in mice, scientists could determine the evolutionary fitness of a population by evaluating which coloration confers a survival advantage that results in greater reproductive success in the given environment. This could be done by counting the offspring of light and dark-colored mice in each enclosure over several generations.
The independent variable in the scientists’ experiment is the color of the sand in the enclosures, which corresponds to the environment in which the mice populations live. This environmental factor would influence the natural selection process as the mice with fur color that blends in more effectively with the sand color would likely have a higher survival rate from predation.
The null hypothesis for this experiment would be that the color of the sand has no effect on the fur color distribution in the mouse populations after several generations. This null hypothesis assumes that the frequencies of light and dark fur coloration in the mice populations will remain unchanged despite the differences in sand color in their respective enclosures.
Justifying the prediction that changes in the frequency of fur color are the result of natural selection, one could argue that since the enclosures are exposed to predatory birds, mice that match the sand color are less likely to be seen and eaten by these predators. Over time, this selection pressure would result in an increase in the frequency of fur color that best camouflages with the environment. This is similar to the known case of the peppered moth and other examples where population genetics shift towards more successful phenotypes due to selection pressures.