Question

Henry Clinton, a robust 50-year-old executive living in the northern suburbs of St. Paul, has been diagnosed by a University of Minnesota internist as having a decaying liver. Although he is otherwise healthy, Clintons's liver problem could prove fatal if left untreated. Firm research data are not yet available to predict the likelihood of survival for a man of Clinton's age and condition without surgery. However, based on her own experience and recent medical journal articles, the internist tells him that if he elects to avoid surgical treatment of the liver problem, chances of survival will be approximated as follows: only a 60% chance of living 1 year, a 20% chance of surviving for 2 years, a 10% chance for 5 years, and a 10% chance of living to age 58. She places his probability of survival beyond age 58 without a liver transplant to be extremely low. The transplant operation, however, is a serious surgical procedure. Five percent of patients die during the operation or its recovery stage, with an additional 45% dying during the first year. Twenty percent survive for 5 years, 13% survive for 10 years, and 8%, 5%, and 4% survive, respectively, for 15, 20, and 25 years. (a) Should Clinton select the transplant? (b) What other factors should be considered?

Answer 1

Explanation:

(a)

EMV is Tucker decides not to have surgery = Sum of (Probability * Survival years) = 0.6*1+0.2*2+0.1*5+0.1*8 = 2.3 years

EMV if Tucker decides to have surgery = Sum of (Probability * Survival years) = 0.05*0 (immediate death) + 0.45*1+0.20*5+0.13*10+0.08*15+0.05*20+0.04*25 = 5.95 years

Clinton should select the transplant option as his probability of surviving years is almost 2.5 times if he goes for the operation.

(b)

Other factors that might be considered are current health of the patient, effect of age, etc. and other such factors.