Question

At the beginning of the school year, experts were asked to predict a variety of world events (for example, the province of Quebec separating from Canada). The experts reported being 80 percent confident in their predictions. However, their predictions were correct only 40 percent of the time. This result reflects a flaw in thinking called _____.

Answer 1

The result reflects a flaw in the thinking of the experts called overconfidence.

Explanation:

• When there are operations that are going on around which may lead to a certain outcome, we tend to predict the outcome based on our understanding of the intensity of the events leading to it.
• In some instances, we are too sure of the possible outcome and we almost envisage that the event would definitely take place the way we have predicted it would.
• This thinking that is merely based on precognition can be referred to as 'overconfidence'.