Question

You are the price manager at a restaurant that, for customer relations reasons, can reset its prices (reprint menus) no more than once every two years. Because you want prices that are competitive but cover costs with as much of a profit margin to spare as possible, you require as accurate a prediction of inflation over the next two years as possible.

What would be your best method of predicting inflation?

a. Take the forecast of the economist with the best track record of predicting inflation.
b. Look to the yields of inflation swaps.
c. Consult the University of Michigan survey of inflation expectations among the public.
d. Take the average inflation forecast across many professional economists.

Answer 1

My best method of predicting inflation as the price manager at a restaurant is:

b. Look to the yields of inflation swaps.

Step-by-step explanation:

An inflation swap is a financial derivative contract that transfers inflation risk between two parties. Inflation swap yields can provide a more accurate estimation of the future inflation rates than relying on the predictions of individual economists. This method is widely used by finance professionals to hedge or reduce inflation risk and set long-term prices.