Question

Suppose in a certain state there were 94 tornadoes in the last 38 years.(a) What is the probability that there are 2 tornadoes in the next year (pleaseround to 3 decimal places)?(b) What is the probability that there are 3 or more tornadoes in the next year(please round to 3 decimal places)?

Answer 1

This is an example of experimental probability that was observed over a period of 38years.

94 tornadoes occurred in the 38year period.

This means averagely,

`\begin{gathered} (94)/(38)\text{ tornadoes occurred yearly} \\ 2.474\text{ tornadoes per year} \end{gathered}`

(a) The probability that there will be 2 tornadoes in the next year will be;

`\frac{no\text{ of expected tornadoes}}{no\text{ of total tornadoes}}=(2)/(2.474)=0.808\text{ (to 3 decimal places)}`

Therefore, the probability that there will be 2 tornadoes in the next year = 0.808

(b) The probability that there are 3 or more tornadoes in the next year is 0. This is because based on the experimental probability sampled over a 38year period gave 2.474 tornadoes per year. Hence, expecting more tornadoes than this average is highly unlikely.