Answer:
According to the psychologist and decision theorist Ward Edwards, many pessimists are confused about the logic of value judgments. Edwards argued that pessimists often make the mistake of conflating "desirable" with "probable" when making value judgments about uncertain events.
Pessimists tend to focus on the negative outcomes or risks associated with a decision, and as a result, they may underestimate the probability of positive outcomes or overestimate the probability of negative outcomes. This can lead them to make overly conservative or risk-averse decisions.
Edwards argued that value judgments should be based on the desirability of the outcome, rather than its probability. In other words, one should evaluate the desirability of an outcome in terms of its intrinsic value, independent of its likelihood of occurring.
For example, if there is a 50% chance of winning a prize worth $100, the intrinsic value of the prize is still $100, even though the probability of winning is uncertain. A pessimist may focus on the 50% chance of losing, and therefore consider the expected value of the prize to be only $50, which can lead to a different decision than someone who focuses on the intrinsic value of the prize.
Overall, Edwards argued that it is important to separate the desirability of an outcome from its probability when making value judgments, and that pessimists may benefit from this approach to decision-making.