Final Answer:
The following procedure is most likely to detect this fraud 4) Perform analytical tests, comparing production, materials purchased, and raw materials inventory levels; investigate differences.
Step-by-step explanation:
Analytical tests that compare production, materials purchased, and raw materials inventory levels are most likely to detect the fraud described in the scenario. By analyzing these elements, discrepancies and anomalies can be identified, prompting further investigation.
Observing the receiving dock and counting materials received (Option 3) may help in detecting discrepancies, but it might not directly reveal the fraudulent activities of the production manager, who is manipulating the ordering and delivery process.
The first two options involve reviewing cash disbursements and confirming purchase details with vendors. While these are good internal controls, they may not directly uncover the fraudulent scheme involving the manager's side business, as the manipulation is happening internally.
Performing analytical tests allows for a comprehensive examination of the entire production process, revealing any irregularities between actual production, materials purchased, and inventory levels. Investigating these differences can lead to the discovery of the fraud, making Option 4 the most suitable procedure in this context.
So, the correct option is 4) Perform analytical tests, comparing production, materials purchased, and raw materials inventory levels; investigate differences.