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You have determined the critical path in a CPM analysis. You would like to determine the probability of completing the project is a desired period of time. One of the activities on the critical path has an optimistic time of 5 minutes, a most likely time of 6, and a pessimistic time of 17. What is the variance estimate of this activity?

User Noyo
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1 Answer

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Answer:

The variance estimate of this activity is 4.

Explanation:

Given information: One of the activities on the critical path has

Optimistic time = 5 minutes

Most likely time = 6 minutes

Pessimistic time = 17 minutes

The variance estimate of a activity is


\sigma ^2=((t_p-t_o)/(6))^2

where,
t_p is pessimistic time of that activity and
t_o is optimistic time of that activity.

The variance estimate of the given activity is


\sigma ^2=((17-5)/(6))^2


\sigma ^2=((12)/(6))^2


\sigma ^2=2^2


\sigma ^2=4

Therefore the variance estimate of this activity is 4.

User Takatoshi Kondo
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