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Every day, Jorge buys a lottery ticket. Each ticket has a probability of 0.2 of winning a prize. After seven days, what is the probability that Jorge has won at least one prize? Round your answer to four decimal places.


(a) The probability that Jorge has won at least one prize is ____.

User Johneric
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1 Answer

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Explanation:

the probability to win is 0.2.

the probability to lose is 1-02 = 0.8.

there is no sure win after at least n trials.

on day 1 the probability to win is 0.2.

on day 2 the probability to win at least once is

the probability to have won on day 1 but not on day 2, plus the probability to have won on day 2 but not on day 1 plus the probability to have won on both days :

0.2×0.8 + 0.8×0.2 + 0.2×0.2 = 0.32 + 0.04 = 0.36

...

on day 7 we have

the probability to have won on one day but not on 6 days times the combination of picking 1 day out of 7,

plus the probability to have won on 2 days but not on 5 days times the combinations to pick 2 out of 7,

plus the probability to have won on 3 days but not on 4 days times the combinations to pick 3 out of 7,

...

plus the probability to have won on all 7 days.

that is

0.2.×0.8⁶ × 7 +

+ 0.2²×0.8⁵ × C(7, 2) +

+ 0.2³×0.8⁴ × C(7, 3) +

+ 0.2⁴×0.8³ × C(7, 4) +

+ 0.2⁵×0.8² × C(7, 5) +

+ 0.2⁶×0.8 × 7 +

+ 0.2⁷

but before we lose ourselves in tons of little operations, this is the same as the opposite of having lost on all 7 days.

that is

1 - 0.8⁷ = 1 - 0.2097152 = 0.7902848 ≈ 0.7903

so, the probability that Jorge has won at least one prize is

0.7903

User Moshe Fortgang
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