Question

The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows:

YEAR CASES OF MERLOT WINE
2005 281
2006 367
2007 409
2008 467
2009 369
2010 511
2011 421
2012 387
Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.20, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of 2012. Use the average demand for 2005 through 2007 as your initial forecast for 2008, and then smooth the forecast forward to 2012. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to the nearest whole number.)

Answer 1

The forecast for the year 2012 with an alpha value of 0.20 = 366.04.

Step-by-step explanation:

The first step in order to solve this question/problem is to calculate or determine the Exponentially smoothed forecast for a period of time, t using the values of average demand for 2005 through 2007, that is to say;

Exponentially smoothed forecast for a period of time, t using the values of average demand for 2005 through 2007 = [actual sales in 2005 + actual sales in 2006 + actual sales in 2007]/ 3.

Therefore, Exponentially smoothed forecast for a period of time, t using the values of average demand for 2005 through 2007 =[ 281 + 367 + 409]/3 = 1057/3 = 352.3.

Since we are asked to use the smoothed value calculated as of the end of 2012. Use the average demand for 2005 through 2007 as your initial forecast for 2008, then, we have that for 2008 the forecast = 352.3.

Therefore, the forecast from the year 2009 through to the year 2012 can be calculated as given below;

The forecast for the year 2009 with an alpha value of 0.20 = 0.2 × 467 + [1 - 0.2] × 352.3 = 375.24.

The forecast for the year 2010 with an alpha value of 0.20 = 0.2 × 369 + [1 - 0.2] × 352.3 = 355.64.

The forecast for the year 2011 with an alpha value of 0.20 = 0.2 × 511 + [1 - 0.2] × 352.3 = 384.04.

The forecast for the year 2012 with an alpha value of 0.20 = 0.2 × 421 + [1 - 0.2] × 352.3 = 366.04.