Question

Phil Dunphy, a real estate agent, is considering whether he should list an unusual $262,023 house for sale. If he lists it, he will need to spend $3,111 in advertising, staging, and fresh cookies. The current owner has given Phil 6 months to sell the house. If he sells it, he will receive a commission of $19,752. If he is unable to sell the house, he will lose the listing and his expenses. Phil estimates the probability of selling this house in 6 months to be 40%. What is the expected profit on this listing?

Answer 1

Answer: $4,789.80

Explanation:

If Phil is able to sell the house, the profit he makes will be;

= Commission - expenses

= 19,752 - 3,111

= $16,641

If he is unable to sell in 6 months he will lose $3,111.

His expected profit will be a weighted average of the two possibilities;

= (40% * 16,641) + ( 60% * -3,111)

= ‭6,656.4‬0 + (-‭1,866.6‬)

= $4,789.80