Question

Players in any sport who are having great​ seasons, turning in performances that are much better than anyone might have​ anticipated, often are pictured on the cover of Sports Illustrated.​ Frequently, their performances then falter​ somewhat, leading some athletes to believe in a​ "Sports Illustrated​ jinx." Similarly, it is common for phenomenal rookies to have less stellar second​ seasons, the​ so-called "sophomore​ slump." While​ fans, athletes, and analysts have proposed many theories about what leads to such​ declines, a statistician might offer a simpler​ (statistical) explanation. Explain.

Answer 1

People on the cover are usually there for outstanding performances. Because they are so far from the​ mean, the performance in the next year is likely to be closer to the mean.

Explanation:

We are told that frequently, their performances then falter​ somewhat, after they are pictured on the cover of Sports Illustrated."

Also, we are told it's common for phenomenal rookies to have less stellar second​ seasons, which is called "sophomore​ slump."

Now, this could be due to pressure and the need to prove themselves.

Now, someone to be on the cover of Sports Illustrated, it doesn't neccesarily imply that such a person is the absolute best. It just implies that their performance was far better than how they normally perform. This may be due to either real skill, heavy training or a luck.

However, the most comprehensive reason is that;

People on the cover are usually make it there due to their outstanding performances. Thus, because they are so far from the​ mean, the performance in the following year is likely to be closer to the mean.