Final answer:
An earlier spring can lead to a mismatch between blue-winged warblers' breeding cycles and food resource availability, potentially causing a decline in their populations.
Step-by-step explanation:
The populations of blue-winged warblers are most likely to be affected by the earlier arrival of spring in a way that leads to challenges in their reproductive success. An earlier spring may cause mismatches between the timing of warblers' breeding cycles and the availability of their food resources—caterpillars and other insects whose emergence is tied to the timing of leaf-out in trees. If warblers arrive at their breeding grounds and the peak availability of food resources has already passed due to an early spring, they may struggle to find enough food to raise their young, leading to a decline in population numbers. Moreover, the changes in climate may also alter the habitats, further challenging the warblers' capacity to adapt quickly enough to these new conditions.