Question

The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of ambulance. The TheXarbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage" be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5

years are as follows:
Year Mileage
1 3000
2 4000
3 3400
4 3800
5 3700
a) Forecast the mileage for next year using a 2-year moving average.
b) Find the MAD based on the 2-year moving average forecast in part (a), (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)
c) Use a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of .4 and .6 to forecast next year's mileage. (The weight of .6 is for the most recent year.) What MAD results from using this approach to forecasting? (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)
d) Compute the forecast for year 6 using exponential smoothing, an initial forecast for year 1 of 3,000 miles, and a = .5.

Answer 1

Step-by-step explanation:

A) using 2-year moving average :

Year 6 : (3800 + 3700) = 7500 / 2 = 3750

2) Mean absolute deviation based on the forecast above :

(3000 + 4000) = 7000/2 = 3500

(4000 + 3400) = 7400/2 = 3700

(3400 + 3800) = 7200/2 = 3600

3000

4000

3400 __3500__100

3800__3700__100

3700__3600__100

Mean absolute deviation = (100 + 100 + 100) /3 = 300/3 = 100

C) weight of 0.4 and 0.6

(0.4*3000 + 0.6*4000) = 3600

(0.4*4000 + 0.6*3400) = 3640

(0.4*3400 + 0.6*3800) = 3640

3000

4000

3400 __3600__200

3800__3640__160

3700__3640__60

(200 + 160 + 60) = 420 / 3 = 140