Question

There are n machines in a factory, each of them has defective rate of 0.01. Some maintainers are hired to help machines working. Using Poisson approximations to answer the following questions and explain why we can use Poisson approximation.

(a) If one maintainer is responsible for 20 machines, what’s the probability that machines go defective and cannot be repaired on time?
(b) If three maintainers are responsible for 80 machines, what’s the probability that machines go defective and cannot be repaired on time?
(c) Assume n=300, then at least how many maintainers are required such that the probability machines cannot be fixed on time is less than 0.01?

Answer 1

a) 1 - ∑²⁰ˣ_k=0 ((e^-λ) × λ^k) / k!

b) 1 - ∑^(80x/d)_k=0 ((e^-λ) × λ^k) / k!

c) ∑²⁰ˣ_k=0 (3^k)/k! = 0.99e³

Step-by-step explanation:

Given that;

if n ⇒ ∞

p ⇒ 0

⇒ np = Constant = λ, we can apply poisson approximation

⇒ Here 'p' is small ( p=0.01)

⇒ if (n=large) we can approximate it as prior distribution

⇒ let the number of defective items be d

so p(d) = ((e^-λ) × λ) / d!

NOW

a)

Let there be x number of repairs, So they will repair 20x machines on time. So if the number of defective machine is greater than 20x they can not repair it on time.

λ[n0.01]

p[ d > 20x ] = 1 - [ d ≤ 20x ]

= 1 - ∑²⁰ˣ_k=0 ((e^-λ) × λ^k) / k!

b)

Similarly in this case if number of machines d > 80x/3;

Then it can not be repaired in time

p[ d > 80x/3 ]

1 - ∑^(80x/d)_k=0 ((e^-λ) × λ^k) / k!

c)

n = 300, lets do it for first case i.e;

p [ d > 20x } ≤ 0.01

1 - ∑²⁰ˣ_k=0 ((e^-λ) × λ^k) / k! = 0.01

⇒ ∑²⁰ˣ_k=0 ((e^-λ) × λ^k) / k! = 0.99

⇒ ∑²⁰ˣ_k=0 (λ^k)/k! = 0.99e^λ

∑²⁰ˣ_k=0 (3^k)/k! = 0.99e³