Question

Short-term interest rates are more volatile than long-term rates. Despite this, the rates of return of long-term bonds are more volatile than returns on short-term securities. How can these two empirical observations be reconciled?

Answer 1

Short term interest rates are more volatile (or change more often) because the FED uses them to control inflation and the money supply. Generally, when the FED engages in either expansionary or contractionary monetary policies, they will use short term interest rates. Even if they change more often, their nominal rates are generally very low, and a small change does the job. So they change more often, but in a very small proportion.

On the other hand, long term securities yield much more volatile returns because they last much longer and any small change in interests rates will result in a larger proportional change of returns in the long run. The longer the bonds, the larger the effect of any change in the market rates.