Expected Return: 8.30%
Step-by-step explanation:
The expected return is calculated by multiplying the probability of each economic state by its corresponding rate of return and then summing the results.
Recession: 0.29 * -9.70% = -2.83%
Normal: 0.40 * 11.20% = 4.48%
Boom: 0.31 * 21.40% = 6.63%
Expected Return = -2.83% + 4.48% + 6.63% = 8.30%
Therefore, the expected return based on the given information is 8.30%.