Question

Assume that an opinion poll conducted in a 1998 congressional race found that on election eve, 54% of the voters supported Congressman Smith and 44% supported challenger Jones. Also assume that the poll had a /- 3% margin of error. What would the pollster be able to safely predict

Answer 1

Congressman Smith will defeat Challenger Jones

Explanation:

Since the poll has a +/- 3% margin of error, the minimum and maximum possible percentages for each candidate are:

(44% - 3%) ≤ Jones ≤ (44% + 3%)

41% ≤ Jones ≤ 47%

(54% - 3%) ≤ Smith ≤ (54% + 3%)

51% ≤ Smith ≤ 57%

This means that, even in the worst possible scenario for Congressman Smith, he would still beat Jones with 51% against 47% of the votes. The pollster can safely predict that Congressman Smith will defeat Challenger Jones .