Question

Flu vaccine production requires a lead time of about 6 months. Consider the start of the 21st century when 95 million doses were produced for the 2002-2003 season (US). Unfortunately, 12 million doses were not used and had to be destroyed (a vaccine is good only for one season). Back then, how would you decide how much vaccine to produce for 2003-2004? (please explain and show work)

Answer 1

If alpha is 0.2 then 92.6units

If alpha is 0.3 then 91.4units

Step-by-step explanation:

The calculation can be done by the following formula

F = F + alpha (A-F)

Where

F = Forecast value

A= Actual value

Alpha = exponential smoothing constant

If alpha is taken 0.2

F = 95 + 0.2 ( 83-95)

F = 92.6

If alpha is taken 0.3

F = 95 + 0.3( 83-95)

F= 91.4