Question

Insurance Underwriters have established that the probability of city experiencing disasters in the next five years is 0.3 for a Tornado, 0.4 for Hurricane, and 0.1 for both Tornado and Hurricane. A) What is the probability of city experiencing only a Tornado in the next five years?B) What is the probability of city experiencing neither a Tornado nor Hurricane in the next five years?

Answer 1

a. 20%

b. 40%

Explanation:

We have the following from the statement:

P (T) = 0.3

P (H) = 0.4

P (T n H) = 0.1

Thus:

a. Tornado-only probability would be the probability of a tornado minus the probability of both tornado and hucaran

P (only T) = P (T) - P (T n H)

replacing:

P (only T) = 0.3 - 0.1

P (only T) = 0.2

In other words, the probability that only one tornado will occur is 20%

b. The probability that there is neither of the two would be the complement of the union between both events, that is:

P (T U H) '= 1 - P (T U H)

and the union is equal to:

P (T U H) = P (T) + P (H) - P (T n H)

replacing:

P (T U H) = 0.3 + 0.4 - 0.1

P (T U H) = 0.6

now if replacing in P (T U H) ':

P (T U H) '= 1 - 0.6

P (T U H) '= 0.4

That is to say that the probability that neither of the two happens is 40%