Question

In an election for state office in Virginia, exit polls based on a random sample of 1,000 voters out of 3

million voters had the Republican leading the Democrat by a vote of 60% to 40%, and the margin of
error was reported as 3%. Which of the following is the correct prediction about the final election
result?​

Answer 1

Ansswer:

I think that options include:

A. With a high level of confidence, the republican defeated the democrats

B. the republican definitely defeated the democrats

C. the republican defeated the democrats with probability of 0.60

D. It is not possible to predict the winner because less than 1% of the voters were in the sample

Answer: Option D

Explanation:

The result of this election cannot be predicted accurately as only 1000 voters out of 3,000,000 were sampled.

To get a good sample, the sample must be at least 10% of the total population and be a representative of the population but in this context, the sample is even less than 1% (30,000). Thus, the prediction might be inaccurate...