Question

Jensen Co. expects to pay €50,000 in one month for its imports from France. It also expects to receive €200,000 for its exports to Belgium in one month. Jensen estimates the standard deviation of monthly percentage changes of the euro to be 2.5 percent over the last 50 months. Assume that these percentage changes are normally distributed. Using the value-at-risk (VaR) method based on a 97.5 percent confidence level, what is the maximum one month loss in dollars if the expected percentage change of the euro during next month is 2 percent? Assume that the current spot rate of the euro (before considering the maximum one-month loss) is $1.35.

Answer 1

-$5,873

Explanation:

For computation of maximum one month loss in dollars first we need to find out the net exposure and maximum one month loss in percentage which is shown below:-

Net exposure = Received amount - Paid amount

= €200,000 - €50,000

= €150,000

Maximum one - month loss in Percentage = Next month percentage - (Alpha × Euro percentage)

= 2% - (1.96 × 2.5%)

= -2.9%

Maximum one - month loss in Dollars = Net exposure × Current spot rate of the euro × Maximum one - month loss in Percentage

= €150,000 × $1.35 × (-0.029)

= -$5,873