Answer:
d) No, this would not be unusual because 46% is only 1.2 standard errors from 40%.
Explanation:
Problems of normally distributed samples are solved using the z-score formula.
In a set with mean
and standard deviation
, the zscore of a measure X is given by:
![Z = (X - \mu)/(\sigma)](https://img.qammunity.org/2021/formulas/mathematics/college/c62rrp8olhnzeelpux1qvr89ehugd6fm1f.png)
The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the pvalue, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.
If the z-score is higher than 2 or lower than -2, X is unusual.
In this question:
Mean = 40%. So
![\mu = 0.4](https://img.qammunity.org/2021/formulas/physics/college/819vmn644tuyetqxbth5zraulkbce2zx5y.png)
Standard error = 5%. So
![\sigma = 0.05](https://img.qammunity.org/2021/formulas/mathematics/college/zc9zszw5e3nl7bkl1k5y32k7k6vqzlcgiv.png)
Is 46% unusual?
We have to find Z when X = 0.46. So
![Z = (X - \mu)/(\sigma)](https://img.qammunity.org/2021/formulas/mathematics/college/c62rrp8olhnzeelpux1qvr89ehugd6fm1f.png)
![Z = (0.46 - 0.4)/(0.05)](https://img.qammunity.org/2021/formulas/mathematics/college/etzv9cf9w1mlnbcnxgxo2y1p1cqyjozn1m.png)
![Z = 1.2](https://img.qammunity.org/2021/formulas/mathematics/college/9mb2p2auty27lq3is3m84q3nn3la5738h3.png)
1.2 is lower than 2, that is, it is only 1.2 standard deviations from the mean. So 46% is not unusual.
So the correct answer is:
d) No, this would not be unusual because 46% is only 1.2 standard errors from 40%.