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This season, the probability that the Yankees will win a game is 0.49 and the probability that the Yankees will score 5 or more runs in a game is 0.56. The probability that the Yankees lose and score fewer than 5 runs is 0.36. What is the probability that the Yankees will win when they score fewer than 5 runs? Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.

1 Answer

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Answer:

0.182 probability that the Yankees will win when they score fewer than 5 runs

Explanation:

We use the conditional probability formula to solve this question. It is


P(B|A) = (P(A \cap B))/(P(A))

In which

P(B|A) is the probability of event B happening, given that A happened.


P(A \cap B) is the probability of both A and B happening.

P(A) is the probability of A happening.

In this problem:

When the Yankees score less than 5 runs, either they win, or they lose. The sum of these probabilities is 1.

Probability they lose:

Event A: Scoring fewer than 5 runs.

Event B: Losing

The probability that the Yankees will score 5 or more runs in a game is 0.56.

So 1 - 0.56 = 0.44 probability the Yankees score fewer than 5 runs.

This means that
P(A) = 0.44

The probability that the Yankees lose and score fewer than 5 runs is 0.36.

This means that
P(A \cap B) = 0.36

Then the probability they lose is:


P(B|A) = (P(A \cap B))/(P(A)) = (0.36)/(0.44) = 0.818

Probability they win:

p + 0.818 = 1

p = 0.182

0.182 probability that the Yankees will win when they score fewer than 5 runs

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