Question

Sloan Transmissions, Inc., has the following estimates for its new gear assembly project: price = $2,900 per unit; variable costs = $580 per unit; fixed costs = $5.2 million; quantity = 88,000 units. Suppose the company believes all of its estimates are accurate only to within ±15 percent. What values should the company use for the four variables given here when it performs its best-case scenario analysis? What about the worst-case scenario?

Answer 1

in its best case scenario:

selling price = $2,900 + 15% = $3,335 per unit

variable costs = $580 - 15% = $493 per unit

fixed costs = $5.2 million - 15% = $4.42 million

quantity = 88,000 + 15% = 101,200 units

estimated profits in best case scenario = $337,502,000 - $49,891,600 - $4,420,000 = $283,190,400

in its worst case scenario:

selling price = $2,900 - 15% = $2,465 per unit

variable costs = $580 + 15% = $667 per unit

fixed costs = $5.2 million + 15% = $5.98 million

quantity = 88,000 - 15% = 74,800 units

estimated profits in best case scenario = $184,382,000 - $49,891,600 - $5,980,000 = $128,510,400

The firm is still profitable because the contribution margin is huge even in the worst case scenario. In he best case scenario the break even point is 1,556 units, while the break even point in the worst case scenario is 3,326 units. It's a very low break even point considering total expected sales.