Question

Artemisia moves to a new house and she is "fifty-percent sure" that the phone number is 2537267. To verify this. she uses the house phone to dial 2537267. she obtains a busy signal. and concludes that this is indeed the correct number. Assuming that the probability of a typical seven-digit phone number being busy at any given time is 1%, what is the probability that Artemisia’s conclusion was correct?

Answer 1

Without additional information, it's not possible to calculate the exact probability that Artemisia's conclusion is correct using conditional probability and Bayes' theorem.

Step-by-step explanation:

Calculating the Probability of Artemisia's Conclusion Being Correct

To calculate the probability that Artemisia's conclusion about her new phone number being correct, we need to use the concept of conditional probability. Since she is 50% sure that the number is correct, and given the probability of any seven-digit phone number being busy is 1%, we need to consider both pieces of information. We can use Bayes' theorem to update the probability of Artemisia's belief in light of the new evidence (getting a busy signal).

However, we need additional information to accurately calculate this. Specifically, we would need to know the probability that Artemisia would get a busy signal if the number was incorrect. Without this information, we cannot provide a definitive answer to the student's question.

Answer 2

My answer was wrong :/

Step-by-step explanation:

My answer was wrong :/