Question

Suppose task B follows task A. The likelihood that a problem will occur with task A is 0.5, and the time to correct the problem would be 2 months. The likelihood that a problem will occur with task B is 0.2, and the time to correct the problem would be 3 months. The risk consequence of both activities is 3.5 months 5.7 months 1.6 months cannot be determined. True or false?

Answer 1

The risk consequence of both activities is 1.6 months.

Explanation:

We can define a randome variable D: total delay time for the project, and calculate its expected value.

This would be the risk consequence of both activities.

The expected delay time for the project is the sum of the expected delay for task A plus the expected delay for task B. It is assumed the likelihood of a problem in any task is independent of the other.

Then, each expected delay for a task is equal to the probability of a problem multiplied by the consequence (delay time).

`E(D)=E(D_a)+E(D_b)=p_aT_a+p_bT_b\\\\E(D)=0.5*2+0.2*3=1+0.6=1.6`

The risk consequence of both activities is 1.6 months.