Question

You are thinking about the things that can go wrong on your trip home over the Thanksgiving break. You have booked a flight with US-Scareways. You know that in 37% of the cases, the company cancels the flight you are on and in that case, there would be no other air travel option home. As a back-up, your friend Walter has offered you a ride back. However, you know that Walter only has a seat in his car for you with 85% probability. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to 4 decimal places.) What is your probability of making it home for the holidays?

Answer 1

94.45%

Step-by-step explanation:

Probability of reaching home by flight = 1 - probability of flight cancellation = 1-37% = 63%

Posterior Probability of reaching home by Walter's car, if the flight is cancelled = probability of flight cancellation * probability of Walter having one seat in his car = 37% *85% = 31.45%

Therefore probability of reaching home = 63% + 31.45= 94.45%