Question

The current spot exchange rate is $1.55/£ and the three-month forward rate is $1.50/£. Based on your analysis of the exchange rate, you are confident that the spot exchange rate will be $1.52/£ in three months. Assume that you would like to buy or sell £1,000,000. What actions do you need to take to speculate in the forward market? What is the expected dollar profit from speculation?

a. Sell £1,000,000 forward for $1.50/£.
b. Buy £1,000,000 forward for $1.50/£.
c. Wait three months, if your forecast is correct buy £1,000,000 at $1.52/£
d. Sell £1,000,000 today at $1.55/£; wait three months, if your forecast is correct buy £1,000,000 back at $1.52/£

Answer 1

b. Buy £1,000,000 forward for $1.50/£.

Step-by-step explanation:

Let's say for instance, we agree to make purchase of €1,000,000 and then forward for $1.50/€ and we assume that the price turns out to become $1.62/€ in three months time, the expected profit will be $12,000 = €1,000,000 ($1.62 - $1.50)As we can see, answer d looks convincing from an accounting standpoint, but it is wrong because the question asks us to make money with a forward contract, not by holding a particular spot. The correct option should be option b.