Question

Is overshooting (in theory and in practice) consistent with purchasing power parity? Consider the reasons for the usefulness of PPP in the short run versus the long run and the assumption we’ve used in the asset approach (in the short run versus the long run). How does overshooting help to resolve the empirical behavior of exchange rates in the short run versus the long run?

Answer 1

1. Yes, overshooting is consistent with PPP. Investors forecast the expected exchange rate based on the theory of PPP. When there is some change in the market, the investors know the exchange rate will change to equate relative prices in the long run. This is why we observe overshooting in the short run. The investors incorporate this information into their short-run forecasts.

2. Exchange rates are volatile in the short run. The theory's implication that there is exchange rate overshooting (in response to permanent shocks) is one explanation for short-run volatility in

exchange rates.