Question

In the 2012 presidential election, exit polls from the critical state of Ohio provided the following results:

Total Obama Romney
Non college degree (60%) 52% 45%
College degree (40%) 47% 51%
What is the probability that a randomly selected respondent voted for Obama?

Answer 1

50% probability that a randomly selected respondent voted for Obama.

Explanation:

We have these following probabilities:

60% probability that an Ohio resident does not have a college degree.

If an Ohio resident does not have a college degree, a 52% probability that he voted for Obama.

40% probability that an Ohio resident has a college degree.

If an Ohio resident has a college degree, a 47% probability that he voted for Obama.

What is the probability that a randomly selected respondent voted for Obama?

This is the sum of 52% of 60%(non college degree) and 47% of 40%(college degree).

So

`P = 0.52*0.6 + 0.47*0.4 = 0.5`

50% probability that a randomly selected respondent voted for Obama.