Question

Suppose the probability of an unsuccessful missile launch is 0.3. If missiles continue to be launched until an unsuccessful launch occurs, what is the probability that exactly 4 total launches will be performed (round off to second decimal place)?

Answer 1

0.1029 or 10.29%

Explanation:

P(F) =0.3

P(S) = 1-0.3 = 0.7

If missiles continue to be launched until an unsuccessful launch occurs, the probability that exactly 4 total launches will be performed is the probability that the first three launches will be successful while the fourth will be unsucessful:

`P(L=4) = P(S)*P(S)*P(S)*P(F)\\P(L=4) = 0.7*0.7*0.7*0.3\\P(L=4) = 0.1029 = 10.29\%`

The probability of 10 total launches is 0.1029 or 10.29%.