Question

Suppose a student tosses a fair coin consecutively seven times and gets tails each time. Which belief about the probability of getting tails on the next toss is NOT consistent with the hot-hand fallacy?

Answer 1

The probability of getting tails on the next toss is 50%

Step-by-step explanation:

The hot-hand fallacy is the unfounded belief that if an event, like tossing tails on a fair coin, occurs over and over it is likely to keep happening in the future.

In his case, since the coin landed on tails seven straight times, according to the hot-hand fallacy, the next toss is likely to result on tails again, when in reality it still has a 50/50 chance like any other fair coin.

Therefore, it is NOT consistent with the hot-hand fallacy to say that the probability of getting tails on the next toss is 50%.