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Suppose that out of 20% of all packages from Amazon are delivered by UPS, 12% of the packages that are delivered by UPS weighs 2 lbs or more. Also, 8% of the packages that are not delivered by UPS weighs less than 2 lbs.

a. What is the probability that a package is delivered by UPS if it weighs 2 lbs or more?
b. What is the probability that a package is not delivered by UPS if it weighs 2 lbs or more?

1 Answer

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Answer:

(a) Probability that a package is delivered by UPS if it weighs 2 lbs or more = 0.0316.

(b) Probability that a package is not delivered by UPS if it weighs 2 lbs or more = 0.9684 .

Explanation:

We are given that 20% of all packages from Amazon are delivered by UPS, from which 12% of the packages that are delivered by UPS weighs 2 lbs or more and 8% of the packages that are not delivered by UPS weighs less than 2 lbs.

Firstly Let A = Package from Amazon is delivered by UPS.

B = Packages that are delivered by UPS weighs 2 lbs or more.

So, P(A) = 0.2 and P(A') = {Probability that package is not delivered by UPS}

P(A') = 1 - 0.2 = 0.8

P(B/A) = 0.12 {means Probability that package weight 2 lbs or more given it

is delivered by UPS}

P(B'/A') = 0.08 [means Probability that package weight less than 2 lbs given

it is not delivered by UPS}

Since, P(B/A) =
(P(A\bigcap B))/(P(A)) ,
P(A\bigcap B) = P(B/A) * P(A) = 0.12 * 0.2 = 0.024 .

Also P(B) { Probability that package weight 2 lbs or more} is given by;

  • Probability that package weight 2 lbs or more and it delivered by UPS.
  • Probability that package weight 2 lbs or more and is not delivered by UPS.

So, P(B) =
P(B\bigcap A) + P(B\bigcap A') = P(B/A) * P(A) + P(B/A') * P(A')

= 0.12 * 0.2 + 0.92 * 0.8 { Here P(B/A') = 1 - P(B'/A') = 1 - 0.08 = 0.92}

= 0.76

(a) Probability that a package is delivered by UPS if it weighs 2 lbs or more is given by P(A/B);

P(A/B) =
(P(A\bigcap B))/(P(B)) =
(0.024)/(0.76) = 0.0316

(b) Probability that a package is not delivered by UPS if it weighs 2 lbs or more = 1 - P(A/B) = 1 - 0.0316 = 0.9684 .

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