Question

At the beginning of the year, experts were asked to predict a variety of world events (for example, the province of Quebec separating from Canada). The experts reported being 80 percent confident in their predictions. However, their predictions were correct only 40 percent of the time. This result reflects a flaw in thinking called:__________.

Answer 1

Overconfidence

Step-by-step explanation:

Overconfidence refers to a situation when people make a wrong judgement regarding their capability. They overvalue themselves even though they necessarily do not have enough skill or experience to back it up.

This is what happened among those experts.

Because they believe that they have more knowledge toward a certain event, they fail to consider other factors that can influence the result of the event.