Answer:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is taking a human toll and has put global democracies on the defensive, but under most scenarios it will have little fallout on our economy.
The principal link between the Russian invasion and the global economy is through oil, natural gas, and other commodity and industrial prices. This constitutes the bulk of what Russia and Ukraine export to the world.
Since it became clear that Russia was amassing troops on its border with Ukraine earlier this year, West Texas Intermediate oil prices have risen about $30 per barrel to more than $100 per barrel. Prices have risen even though global supplies have not been significantly disrupted by the Russian invasion, because the threat of an interruption remains. The increase in prices is a premium added for this risk.
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