Question

Hi guys, I need your help to give your opinions about this one.

Example:
The experts on your island warn of a possible tsunami, but opinions are divided.
a. A quarter of the experts (group A) assume that a tsunami will certainly come.
b. Three quarters of the experts (group B) assume that the tsunami will come with a 10 percent probability.
Which professionals (group A or group B) would you like to believe more and why? Give reasons for your answer. And what are the consequences of this decision for your actions? And how do you deal with the risks of a wrong decision?

Answer 1

I would believe group A more

because, as we know "Precaution is always better an cure"

If I stay more cautious about it, there are less chances of the tsunami to cause a severe harm. If I don't stay much cautious, according to group B, and in case if their prediction goes wrong, I'll be in serious danger.

I chose group A because

even if the tsunami ain't powerful enough, I would be glad I was careful enough for it and it'll help me in future if I face another situation like this again

The consequences if I chose group B would be :

well, if I would have chose B, I won't have taken any Precautions at all

I won't have been careful enough

and in case their prediction went wrong, I would have to suffer high losses.

I hope it helps.... Have a great time ahead!