Question

The taxi and takeoff time for commercial jets is a random variable x with a mean of 8.9 minutes and a standard deviation of 2.9 minutes. Assume that the distribution of taxi and takeoff times is approximately normal. You may assume that the jets are lined up on a runway so that one taxies and takes off immediately after the other, and that they take off one at a time on a given runway.

(a) What is the probability that for 37 jets on a given runway, total taxi and takeoff time will be less than 320 minutes? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)
(b) What is the probability that for 37 jets on a given runway, total taxi and takeoff time will be more than 275 minutes? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)
(c) What is the probability that for 37 jets on a given runway, total taxi and takeoff time will be between 275 and 320 minutes? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

Answer 1

a) 0.2981 = 29.81% probability that for 37 jets on a given runway, total taxi and takeoff time will be less than 320 minutes.

b) 0.999 = 99.9% probability that for 37 jets on a given runway, total taxi and takeoff time will be more than 275 minutes

c) 0.2971 = 29.71% probability that for 37 jets on a given runway, total taxi and takeoff time will be between 275 and 320 minutes

Explanation:

To solve this question, we need to understand the normal probability distribution and the central limit theorem.

Normal Probability Distribution:

Problems of normal distributions can be solved using the z-score formula.

In a set with mean
`\mu` and standard deviation
`\sigma`, the z-score of a measure X is given by:

`Z = (X - \mu)/(\sigma)`

The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the p-value, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.

Central Limit Theorem

The Central Limit Theorem establishes that, for a normally distributed random variable X, with mean
`\mu` and standard deviation
`\sigma`, the sampling distribution of the sample means with size n can be approximated to a normal distribution with mean
`\mu` and standard deviation
`s = (\sigma)/(√(n))`.

For a skewed variable, the Central Limit Theorem can also be applied, as long as n is at least 30.

Mean of 8.9 minutes and a standard deviation of 2.9 minutes.

This means that
`\mu = 8.9, \sigma = 2.9`

Sample of 37:

This means that
`n = 37, s = (2.9)/(√(37))`

(a) What is the probability that for 37 jets on a given runway, total taxi and takeoff time will be less than 320 minutes?

320/37 = 8.64865

Sample mean below 8.64865, which is the p-value of Z when X = 8.64865. So

`Z = (X - \mu)/(\sigma)`

By the Central Limit Theorem

`Z = (X - \mu)/(s)`

`Z = (8.64865 - 8.9)/((2.9)/(√(37)))`

`Z = -0.53`

`Z = -0.53` has a p-value of 0.2981

0.2981 = 29.81% probability that for 37 jets on a given runway, total taxi and takeoff time will be less than 320 minutes.

(b) What is the probability that for 37 jets on a given runway, total taxi and takeoff time will be more than 275 minutes?

275/37 = 7.4324

Sample mean above 7.4324, which is 1 subtracted by the p-value of Z when X = 7.4324. So

`Z = (X - \mu)/(s)`

`Z = (7.4324 - 8.9)/((2.9)/(√(37)))`

`Z = -3.08`

`Z = -3.08` has a p-value of 0.001

1 - 0.001 = 0.999

0.999 = 99.9% probability that for 37 jets on a given runway, total taxi and takeoff time will be more than 275 minutes.

(c) What is the probability that for 37 jets on a given runway, total taxi and takeoff time will be between 275 and 320 minutes?

Sample mean between 7.4324 minutes and 8.64865 minutes, which is the p-value of Z when X = 8.64865 subtracted by the p-value of Z when X = 7.4324. So

0.2981 - 0.0010 = 0.2971

0.2971 = 29.71% probability that for 37 jets on a given runway, total taxi and takeoff time will be between 275 and 320 minutes