Question

A very weak university is on and off probationary status with the accrediting agency. A different procedure is used in July and in January to determine its status for the next 6 months. In July, the probability of changing status by coming off probation is .25; but the probability of changing status by going on probation is .12. In January, the probability of coming off probation is .15; but the probability of going on probation is .08. a) If the university is on probation as of February 2019; what is the probability it will be off probation in February 2020

Answer 1

0.3425 = 34.25% probability it will be off probation in February 2020

Explanation:

We have these desired outcomes:

Off probation in July 2019, with 0.25 probability, then continuing off in January, with 1 - 0.08 = 0.92 probability.

Still in probation in July 2019, with 1 - 0.25 = 0.75 probability, then coming off in January, with 0.15 probability.

What is the probability it will be off probation in February 2020?

`p = 0.25*0.92 + 0.75*0.15 = 0.3425`

0.3425 = 34.25% probability it will be off probation in February 2020