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What is the expected value of the following game?

Pay $8. Win $100 if we draw a King from a standard deck. Win nothing if we draw something else.

User Antares
by
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1 Answer

3 votes

Answer: Expected Value = -0.31

We expect to lose about 31 cents each time we play the game.

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Step-by-step explanation:

A = event of selecting a king

B = event of not selecting a king

P(A) = 4/52 since there are 4 kings out of 52 total. This fraction reduces to 1/13.

P(B) = 48/52 = 12/13

Note: P(A) + P(B) = 1.

V(A) = net value of selecting a king

V(A) = 100-8 = 92, so you net $92 if event A occurs.

V(B) = -8, meaning you lose 8 dollars if you select anything but a king

We multiply the probability values with their corresponding net values

P(A)*V(A) = (1/13)*(92) = 7.07692 approximately

P(B)*V(B) = (12/13)*(-8) = -7.38462 approximately

Add up the results:

7.07692 + (-7.38462) = -0.3077

The expected value is approximately -0.3077 which rounds to -0.31

We expect to lose on average 31 cents each time we play the game. The nonzero expected value means this is not a mathematically fair game.

User Meeesh
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