Question

You are thinking about the things that can go wrong on your trip home over the Thanksgiving break. You have booked a flight with US-Scareways. You know that in 38% of the cases the company has canceled the flight you were on. Should such a thing occur, there would be no other air travel option home for you. As a backup, your friend Walter has offered you a ride back. However, you know that Walter only has a seat in his car for you with 72% probability. What is the probability of you making it home for the holidays?

Answer 1

The probability of you making it home for the holidays is:

= 45%.

Step-by-step explanation:

a) Data and Calculations:

Probability of Scareways flights being canceled = 38%

Probability of successfully traveling with Scareways = 62% (100 - 38%)

Probability of getting a seat in Walter's car = 72%

Therefore, the probability of making it home for the holidays = the combined probabilities (either Scareways flight or Walter's car)

= 62% * 72%

= 0.62 * 0.72

= 0.4464

= 45%