Question

Groundhog's Day is on February 2nd each year. On this day, in Punxsatawney, Pennsylvania, thousands of onlookers watch to see if Phil, the groundhog, will cast a shadow. If he does, then six more weeks of winter are predicted. If he doesn't, then an early spring is predicted. Historically, Phil's prediction has only been correct about 40% of the time.

Using complete sentences, design a simulation to determine the probability that Phil's prediction will be correct at least two out of the next three years. Make sure to explain how you would use the simulation to determine the probability.

Answer 1

In the theory of chances, it states that no matter what the average, chance can change it no matter what. Like someone getting good chances in a video game 2 times in a row. its rare, but compared to how many people play the game and how often, it was bound to happen at some point. the chances could be tiny, but it could still happen. just like if 100 monkeys were on typewriters typing 60 wpm, one would eventually type Abraham Lincoln. low chance, but if all these monkeys are doing it enough, it would happen eventually. so, it is entirely possible that 2/3 of his next predictions will be correct.

Explanation: