Question

Assuming that oil production will peak in about 2020 and

then decline at about 3% per year, when will production
be half of that in 2020? What could be the consequences?
Why? How could these consequences be avoided?

Answer 1

Given that oil production will peak in about 2020 and then decline at about 3% per year, to determine when will production be half of that in 2020 the following calculation must be performed:

50 x (1 + 0.03) ^ X = 100

50 x 1.03 ^ X = 100

50 x 1.03 ^ 23.45 = 100

0.45 x 365 = 164.25

Thus, oil production will be cut in half in 23 years, 5 months and 10 days. After that, the communications and transportation system will be seriously affected, since they depend heavily on oil. These consequences could be avoided if energy alternatives were obtained that could replace oil.