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Which Confucian thinker was the first to argue that human nature is inclined towards goodness as surely as water is inclined to flow downhill?

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Answer: Mencius

Step-by-step explanation:

Mencius was a Confucian scholar who was said to have been revered only second to Confucius himself. Mencius believed that human beings were born with good seeds in them that inclined them towards good.

In an argument with Gaozi who was another scholar, Mencius noted that human nature is inclined towards doing good much like water is inclined towards flowing downhill.

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