Question

Four parties participated in 2018 Provincial election in Ontario; PC, NDP, Liberal, Green party. PC captured 40% of the vote, NDP 30%, Liberal 25%, and the Green party 5%. A survey of 1000 voters asked each to identify the party that they would vote for in the next election. These results were PC=415, NDP=256, Liberal=271, and Green party = 58. Can we infer at 5% level of significance that the voter support is going to change in the next election?

For Observed I get 1000 and a 100 for the expected. The teacher says O-E always = 0???

Answer 1

In no case will there be a modification greater than 5%, thus, it cannot be inferred that the voter support will change in the next election.

Explanation:

Given that four parties participated in 2018 Provincial election in Ontario; PC, NDP, Liberal, Green party, and PC captured 40% of the vote, NDP 30%, Liberal 25%, and the Green party 5%, and the survey of 1000 voters asked each to identify the party that they would vote for in the next election, and its results were PC = 415, NDP = 256, Liberal = 271, and Green party = 58, to determine if it can be inferred at 5% level of significance that the voter support is going to change in the next election the following calculations must be performed:

PC = 40 - (415/1000 x 100) = 40 - 41.5 = -1.5

NDP = 30 - (256/1000 x 100) = 30 - 25.6 = 4.4

Liberal = 25 - (271/1000 x 100) = 25 - 27.1 = -2.1

Green Party = 5 - (58/1000 x 100) = 5 - 5.8 = -0.8

Therefore, as can be seen, in no case will there be a modification greater than 5%, thus, it cannot be inferred that the voter support will change in the next election.