Answer:
The effects of the El Nifio are most pronounced
in late summer (Dec - Mar: Mason
and Jury, 1997, Richard et al, 2000), and the effects are strongest in the No11h East of the
country (Richard et al, 200 l ). Across South Africa, five regions have a consistent response
( 14 out of 20) to the El Nifio episodes since 190 l (Nicholson and Kim. 1997). However.
since the 1970s the ENSO signal in the tropical western Indian Ocean SSTs has weakened
(Landman and Mason, 1999b) and the relationships between ENSO and southern Africa
rainfall has been modified (Richard et al, 2000). Prior to 1970, the late summer (Jan - Mar)
was typically wet in the year following the low - index year of the Southern Oscillation
Index, whereas between 1970 and 1994 these months were generally anomalously dry (5 out
of 6 events: Richard et aL 2000). Additionally. it appears that across southern Africa the
rainfall response has been more spatially coherent since 1970 (Richard et al, 2000).
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