Final answer:
Future buffer or satellite states are likely to emerge in areas that have geopolitical significance but may be economically or politically vulnerable, such as the Arctic, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South China Sea. Global warming may also shape strategic importance and lead to defensive or proactive adaptations in regions like reclaimed desertic areas.
Step-by-step explanation:
The concept of buffer states and satellite states has historically been tied to geopolitical strategies, where powerful nations or blocs influence less powerful neighboring countries to create a zone of separation or protection from potential adversaries. While predicting future buffer or satellite states is speculative, some regions have characteristics that could lead to such developments. Areas that are geopolitically significant but also vulnerable due to their economic, political, or strategic position could become buffers or satellites. An example is the area surrounding the Arctic, which might become a buffer zone due to the strategic importance of new trade routes and resources becoming accessible because of global warming.
Furthermore, shifts in global power dynamics and the resurgence of great power competition may create new spheres of influence. Countries in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South China Sea region, for instance, may find themselves as buffers in the power struggle between Western powers and a resurgent Russia or an assertive China.
In the context of global warming, areas undergoing significant climate-related changes could adapt defensively or proactively. Regions like the Arctic or reclaimed desertic areas could attract populations seeking refuge from rising sea levels or seeking new economic opportunities. However, these shifts may also exacerbate geopolitical tensions, leading to the emergence of new strategic buffer zones.
Countries like North Korea already act as a buffer between major powers like China and the United States. However, with ongoing globalization, regions previously considered as peripheral can gain strategic prominence due to shifts in economic, environmental, or security conditions.