Question

You are thinking about the things that can go wrong on your trip home over the Thanksgiving break. You have booked a flight with US-Scareways. You know that in 30% of the cases the company has canceled the flight you were on. Should such a thing occur, there would be no other air travel option home for you. As a backup, your friend Walter has offered you a ride back. However, you know that Walter only has a seat in his car for you with an 80% probability. What is the probability of you making it home for the holidays?

Answer 1

0.91 = 91% probability of you making it home for the holidays

Explanation:

You can make home with two possibilities:

With US-Scareways, with a 100 - 30 = 70% probability.

In the 30% that you cannot make it with US-Scareways, there is a 70% probability you can get a ride back with Walter.

What is the probability of you making it home for the holidays?

`p = 0.7 + 0.3*0.7 = 0.7 + 0.21 = 0.91`

0.91 = 91% probability of you making it home for the holidays