Question

In a typical two-candidate election, the winner needs more than 50% of votes. A poll taken before a close election indicates that 53% of those surveyed favor candidate Lee. The poll has a 5% absolute deviation. (A poll can decrease uncertainty by surveying more people, but that can be expensive or take too much time.) What should candidate Lee conclude from this poll?Group of answer choicesHe will probably get less than 48% of the vote.He will probably get more than 58% of the vote.He should work hard to persuade more of the voters to vote for him.He will win the election.

Answer 1

Given that the absolute deviation is 5%, the interval of uncertainty is

`53\%\pm5\%=\lbrack53-5,53+5\rbrack=\lbrack48,58\rbrack`

Therefore, the actual outcome of the election can be between 48% and 58% of the total votes in Lee's favor.

Thus, neither of the two first options is possible to occur due to the characteristics of the poll. On the other hand, he has not unequivocally won the election since he could only get 48% to 49.999...% of the votes.

Hence, the answer is the third option 'He should work hard to persuade more of the voters to vote for him'